Northern Lights Forecasting Parameters

Now, let’s know about the parameters of the Northern Lights forecast. There are three main indicators for tracking the aurora lights:

• KP Index
• Ovation Auroral
• Solar Rotation

The most common way of forecasting these magical lights is the KP Index. It’s used for both long-term and short-term predictions. The KP Index ranges between 0 to 9:

• KP 1 to 3: Their predominant color is green and seen in the northern sky at high latitudes. The camera can capture the green glow.
• KP 4 to 6:  They’ll be presented with bright colors, especially something like yellow, pink, or purple tints. Aurora coronas are also possible, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, such as in England or the Northern states of the USA. They’re easily seen with the naked eye.
• KP 7 to 9: Strong Aurora activity. It is easy to see the Northern Lights. They can cover your entire sky and produce rarer colors, red. In Coronas, the Northern Lights might be visible at lower latitudes; for instance, they are visible in California, France, and even northern Spain.

Ovation Auroral 

This method provides a short-term Northern Lights forecast. This model displays a Northern Lights forecast map around the Auroral oval zone, therefore when you are inside the Northern Lights covered area or around 500 miles (800 km) above or below, you can get a chance to view the Auror.

Solar Rotation

Another important thing to consider in the long-term northern lights forecast is the solar rotation. The sun rotates in a 27-day cycle. If it spits a big amount of solar particles towards the earth, this event will likely occur again after 27 days. 

Northern Lights Forecasting Technology & Tools

• Space-based Monitoring Satellites such as NASA’s ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and NOAA’s DSCOVR track solar wind and magnetic fields, which provide data about solar activity.
• Ground-based Magnetometers There are various networks of magnetometers distributed all over the locations to measure geomagnetic activity. The change in Earth’s magnetic field is said to predict the displays of the aurora.
• Solar Observatories: Stations like the SDO track the Sun’s surface activity and solar flare-related events, which enable the early issuance of warnings of solar events that may eventually lead to aurora.
• Computational Models for Forecasting Aurora: They rely on satellite and ground station data, simulating and predicting based on solar wind conditions.
• Mobile Apps and Websites: Most of the apps and websites aggregate data from various sources, among which provide easy access to aurora forecasts, for example, KP index predictions, real-time alerts, and even aurora maps.

Factors Influencing Northern Lights Forecasting

• Sun activity may change from time to time and can cause major changes in the prediction of northern lights. 
• When clouds are clear and dark the Northern lights are visible clearly. While low clouds are frequently dense and can make it difficult to observe the Northern Lights, high cloud levels can be translucent. 
• Light pollution also affects the forecasting of magical lights. So it’s best to go out with street lights and other light sources. 
• Porton density means the amount of particles coming from the sun. Stronger auroral activity can result from high proton density, whereas weaker or invisible auroras can be caused by low proton density. 

How to Read a Northern Lights Forecast

People are interested in reading the Northern Lights forecast, but unfortunately, sometimes they are unable to understand these terms. So let’s go through some important terms used in forecasting so that you can understand it:

KP Index: It is a measurement of magnetic activity in the Earth’s magnetosphere. This influences the solar wind. Its value ranges from 0 to 9. 

Bz: Bz influences the magnetosphere of Earth and subsequently upon northern lights; it provides a direction for solar particles entering Earth’s atmosphere.

Solar Wind: Measured in kilometers per second, the solar wind reveals the speed at which particles from the Sun cross Earth’s boundaries. In this sense, high-speed solar wind may lead to more particles entering Earth’s atmosphere and chances of bright dancing Northern lights tend to increase. 

Proton Density: Proton density is the measure of how many particles are coming from the sun, and this value is usually expressed in cubic centimeters (cm³). Values less than 10 cm³ are regarded as low, 20 cm³ as moderate, 40 cm³ as high, and a value over 60 cm³ is regarded as very high. 

Websites and Apps for Aurora Forecasts

• The most accurate Northern Lights forecast is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which provides a 30-minute Aurora Forecast and is considered the most reliable source for viewing these magical lights.  
• Next is Vedur which is the official website of the Iceland meteorological office.
• To navigate to the aurora forecast, you will first click on the ‘Weather’ tab. Then, look on the left side of the page–there is a link that says ‘Aurora forecasts.’ Auroraforecast. is another helpful website. This page is formatted similarly to Vedur. On the left side of the page, you can see the cloud cover forecast.

Limitations of Forecasting the Northern Lights 

• Sun’s behavior is highly dynamic, with sudden changes in solar flares and coronal mass ejections that can significantly impact the intensity of the aurora, making it difficult to forecast the northern lights. 
• Earth’s magnetic field interaction with solar wind can vary, leading to unpredictable aurora patterns and intensity. 
• The information about solar activity reaches late to us, which means accurate forecasting is difficult. 
• Scientists still can’t provide complete information regarding the complex process involved in the aurora formation. 
• The visibility of light depends upon the observer’s location, even with similar geomagnetic activity, due to differences in the Earth’s magnetic field at different latitudes.
• Major geomagnetic storms, which can produce spectacular auroras far from the poles, can occur with little warning, further complicating forecasting.

How accurate are Northern Lights forecasts?

Northern Lights forecasts are not always exact, but mostly correct. Scientists use many tools and techniques to predict these magical lights. One of the most commonly used tools is the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

FAQ’s

Q1. How to understand the aurora forecast?

KP index ranges between 0 to 9:

• KP 0 to 2 means the light will be far north, quite dim, and not very active. 
• KP 3 to 5 means the light will move further from the pole, be bright, and there will be more auroral activity.

Q2. How accurate is the aurora forecast?

The Aurora forecast is quite accurate but only with a short lead time of 15-45 minutes. 

Q3. Which is the best time to see the Northern lights?

To narrow it down, the Lights are ‘on’ throughout the year, but it is difficult to spot them from about April till August because of the summer sun. The best time to see the Northern Lights is usually September to March.

Q4. Is Aurora visible every night?

Auroras are visible every night near the Arctic and Antarctic Circle, they are about 66.5 degrees North and South of the Equator.